Win, Place, and Show is what they call it at the horse races. Unfortunately for gaming consoles, there are only three studs represented, so even if you “Show”, you’re in last place. It has been a hot topic among business analysts, video gamers, and forum visitors alike; “Who’s going to win the current gen console race?”
Some would call it the “next-gen” console race, but now that we’re already a year and some change into it, I think current gen is more fitting. I like to think the video game industry is like politics, you never know what is going to happen. Sometimes you get a candidate like Dukakis = Virtual Boy, and sometimes you have the idealistic up-and-comer Obama = Wii. Just like in politics the winds of fortune can change, and very fast. As the numbers stand right now, the XBOX 360 is the leader in the states with 10 million units sold. The Nintendo Wii is hanging around 9 million, with the PS3 trailing at 4 million units sold.
On the worldwide scale, the numbers tell a different tale. The Wii is actually ahead with 21 million units sold, with the XBOX 360 in second with 19 million units, and the PS3 is still in last with 9.5 million. So what exactly do these numbers mean in terms of a winner? Absolutely nothing. Well, that might be too definitive, but the point is that by the end of this console life cycle, the numbers in 2008 will be ancient history.
So just who is going to come out on top of this marathon? No one truly knows, but there have been all kinds of “experts” giving their opinions. From numerous articles I’ve read, many of these experts look for the PS3 to come out on top.
According to one of Microsoft’s represenatives, Don Mattrick, this prediction is false (but of course he’s going to say that), “History has shown us that the first company to reach 10 million in console sales wins the generation battle. We are uniquely positioned to set a new benchmark for the industry”
While this is correct, there have been only 3 “console wars” to go by. The SNES-Genesis era, the Playstation-Nintendo 64 era, and the PS2-Gamecube-Xbox war. The newest race seems to have a much different feel to it than the previous ones. The largest difference is that with current gen systems, we’re looking at around a 7-10 year life cycle, while before 5 years was along time. With this cycle, it is definitely going to be more of a marathon this go around.
So like I said earlier, there’s no telling who’s going to come out on top. You can make all kinds of predictions, and market charts, but at the end of the day anything can happen, and probably will happen. Since I like to consider myself an expert, I figured I would throw my prediction out there with the rest of them.
Here’s my console “Win, Place, and Show” list:
Win - Nintendo Wii
Place - Sony PS3
Show - XBOX 360